Backgammon is not, as many assume, a game of chance but a game of probability. Sure, you can't know what the dice will give you the next round, but you can prepare yourself to any possibility. The entire concept expert backgammon players follow is risk calculation.
Though in any given moment you can't tell what numbers you'll need to play next, you still can play according to certain rules. You know that the chance of any number to show is 1/3 (1 out of 6 per cube, times two). This knowledge gives you a lot of power while participating in backgammon online strategy games. As long as you remember what the probability of any event is, you can play accordingly. You won't move your pieces to a spot that has more chances to be hit. For example, if you can move your mark to an open position that's seven pips away from the enemy it'll be better than five pips, because 5 has a 1/3 probability while seven has 1/12 (two plus five, six plus one and four plus three). Any combination or a double has a probability of 1/36 (1/6 times 1/6, for each dice). This statistic also of course must be taken into account.
Backgammon has no fail proof system because of the different approaches to the game. You might win the same amount of games with any strategy, given you play it wisely. The most important thing to remember is to keep your playing style dynamic and in touch with the game. Never stick to your original plan if the game itself changed.
Rakim Tirraz, 2005-09-13 - Editor.